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J M Hatch's avatar

Glad to have you back in the saddle! I'm going to have to re-read this tonight, it's good and lots of items that need contemplation.

For now I'll just say Empires in the end always turn on themselves. The luckiest thing to happen to the people of Japan, was the USA forcing it off the path of it's Empire, but it does come with the horrible baggage of being a proxy, if at times, an unwilling proxy.

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upstater's avatar

Transit in the US is not a "thing" because it largely fails to support the FIRE sector (finance, insurance, real estate). Because land is a consumable in the US, the economic machine is fueled by automotive-centric development. Things like big box retail, Amazon warehouses, McMansion enclaves, low-rise office parks, drive-thru fast food, free parking, etc, etc simply couldn't exist in the absence of cars. Transit simply doesn't support these post 1960s type things. Interstate highways and freeways are the infrastructure that the FIRE sector requires. It further has allowed for the hollowing out of urban cores. Didn't Cheney say the American way of life is non-negotiable? We have gasoline at the same price as 1980.

S.Y. Lee's examples of Japan or France or Korea are valid... but those robust transit systems operate in geographically constrained areas and have a legacy of state centralized planning. Plus the FIRE sector thrives with highly restricted zoning which results in redevelopment of urban cores. Even so, there is no shortage of highway building in a place like France and the low density development on the periphery.

One of the few examples of successful passenger rail is Brightline... but they've also gotten boatloads of public money and bonding to develop infrastructure. Most importantly, they own the land around which stations have been located, so even if it loses money the corporate structure still wins. Of course SE Florida is choked with traffic.

California HSR is an unfortunate mismanaged mess... i don't know how hourly service from Merced to Bakersfield with bus connections to the Bay or LA can ever work out. The connections to the final end points are huge engineering and management challenges, and the Central Valley slo-mo construction provides zero encouragement for completion. It has been a cost-plus contractors' grift.

Lack of connectivity and balkanization as cited is a huge barrier. Places like NY Penn Station epitomize the problem with no run-throughs to different systems or states. Connecticut doesn't want to spend money that benefits New Jersey. DC is that same way with the commuter rail systems or Virginia and Maryland. Thus, the terminals are clogged. Boston can build the Big Dig for cars but can't manage to do the same for rail.

Transit and passenger rail were hopeless under democrats and is only slightly more hopeless under Trump.

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